FIRE Calculators Compared: How NewRetirement, Empower, and Boldin Diverge

The household

A 38-year-old household, $185,000 combined income, $640,000 in invested assets (split across taxable, traditional 401(k), and Roth IRA), saving 50% of after-tax income, target retirement at 47.

Annual planned spending in retirement: $72,000 (today's dollars), with healthcare costs separately modeled at $14,000/year pre-Medicare and $9,000/year post-Medicare.

We ran this household through Boldin's PlannerPlus (paid tier), Empower's Retirement Planner (free), and a comparable plan on the public NewRetirement Free tier (now also Boldin).

The success probabilities

Same household, same inputs:

• Boldin PlannerPlus: 73% success probability across 1,000 Monte Carlo trials.
• Empower Retirement Planner: 91% success probability.
• NewRetirement / Boldin Free: 84% success probability.

A 23-percentage-point spread on identical inputs. For a FIRE plan, that's the difference between "go ahead" and "save another two years."

Where the spread comes from

Three drivers, in order of impact.

Drawdown sequence modeling. Boldin's paid tier handles complex withdrawal sequences correctly: from taxable accounts in early years, then 72(t)/SEPP distributions from traditional accounts if needed, with strategic Roth conversions during low-income years. Empower's free tool defaults to a generic "withdraw proportionally from all accounts" approach that's tax-inefficient and produces lower projected outcomes — though Empower's optimistic SS assumption pushes its overall number up.

Social Security defaults. Empower's tool assumes Social Security starts at age 62 (the earliest claim age) and uses the SSA's standard benefit calculation. Boldin's paid tier lets you specify FRA-based or delayed-claim strategies and adjusts downward for years of FIRE'd zero-income (which can reduce the eventual benefit). The Empower default produces a more optimistic SS income figure.

Healthcare modeling. Both Boldin tiers apply realistic healthcare inflation (5% annually, above general CPI). Empower's tool inflates healthcare at general CPI (3%), understating long-horizon healthcare costs by a meaningful amount in a 50-year retirement.

After matching the assumptions across the three tools, the success probability spread compresses to about 6 percentage points — within Monte Carlo noise.

What Boldin gets right that others don't

SEPP/72(t) modeling. For FIRE'rs accessing traditional retirement accounts before 59.5, the IRS's Substantially Equal Periodic Payments rule allows penalty-free withdrawals. Boldin's tool models this natively — you can specify when SEPP starts, how much it produces annually, and the tool correctly applies it to the drawdown sequence.

Empower can't model this. NewRetirement Free can't either.

Roth conversion ladders. A Roth conversion ladder is the canonical FIRE tax strategy: convert traditional IRA dollars to Roth in low-income years (post-FIRE, pre-Social Security), pay tax at the lower marginal rate, wait 5 years, then withdraw conversions tax-free. Boldin's tool models the conversion sequence year by year and computes the optimal conversion size given income tax brackets.

Empower can't do this. NewRetirement Free can't optimize it.

Pre-Medicare healthcare. ACA marketplace coverage with subsidies based on income is the most common pre-Medicare option for FIRE'rs. Boldin's paid tier models the income-subsidy interaction — including the cliff that happens when income crosses 400% of the federal poverty line. This is one of the most consequential variables in FIRE planning.

What Empower gets right

The free price. Empower's Retirement Planner is bundled with the firm's account aggregation tool (formerly Personal Capital), and as long as you're willing to be marketed to, the planner is free.

The account-linkage flow is also better than Boldin's — Empower pulls real portfolio holdings, applies real expense ratios, and produces a more accurate baseline than self-reported allocations. For a quick check on whether you're directionally on track, Empower is fine.

It just isn't sufficient for FIRE planning specifically.

NewRetirement Free vs. Boldin PlannerPlus

The free tier of Boldin (formerly NewRetirement) handles the basics — Monte Carlo simulation, multiple income sources, basic drawdown — but doesn't include the SEPP, Roth conversion, or pre-Medicare ACA modeling. For a non-FIRE retirement scenario, the free tier is sufficient. For early retirement, the paid tier ($120/year as of late 2025) is the differentiator.

We don't usually recommend paid software for personal-finance use cases. This is one we'd recommend.

What none of them do well

None of the tools we tested handle real estate as a meaningful asset class. Rental income, equity buildup, depreciation recapture, and 1031 exchanges are common in higher-net-worth FIRE plans and are essentially absent from these tools' modeling.

None handle business income or sale proceeds particularly well. If your FIRE plan involves selling a business, none of the tools will model the post-sale tax position correctly without manual workarounds.

For most FIRE plans, the tools are sufficient. For complex financial situations involving real estate or business equity, professional advice remains the only option.

The verdict

Boldin PlannerPlus is the best dedicated FIRE planning tool we've used. The $120/year is approximately the cost of one hour with a fee-only CFP — and the tool will produce a more rigorous plan in less time than most planners would for that hour.

For non-FIRE retirement planning, the free tools (Boldin Free, Empower) are sufficient. For early retirement, the paid tools justify themselves on the SEPP, Roth conversion ladder, and ACA-subsidy modeling alone.

The 23-percentage-point success probability spread we observed isn't really a tool problem — it's an assumption-modeling problem. Tools that take FIRE seriously model the FIRE-specific levers. Tools that don't, don't.

Plan against the more rigorous tool. Trust the free tools for sanity checks; trust Boldin's paid tier for actually-pulling-the-trigger conversations.